I have been fortunate to have a background that has given me many of the experiences of most of our clients. I have worked as a resin producer, distributor and converter, so I can relate to the majority of our client base and understand the key needs for each of them.
Influence of Data and Market Intelligence on Strategic Decisions
Resin producers will use our data to decide if they will spend billions of dollars to build a new facility in a particular geography. They will look at our assessment of energy and feedstock prices as well as our long-term demand views for these potential investments. Resin converters will use our data to build their budgets to allocate expected costs to make their products. Downstream brand owners will use our data to also understand pricing implications of their key materials.
Trends Shaping Supply, Demand and Pricing Dynamics
Today, the market is in a bit of shock, dealing with the supply chain disruptions in the Middle East, which is the world’s dominant exporter of key plastics like polyethylene and polypropylene. This is likely to dominate industry focus for some time, even once resolution is reached, as there will be a period of recalibration for supply chains.
There is a lot to becoming a strong chemical market analyst. We are expected to be experts on the economy and stay on top of geopolitics to understand current and future demand growth trends.
Prior to the Middle East conflicts, the industry had been in the middle of a historical oversupply by resin producers, leading to some of the lowest resin prices seen in decades. Now the market is waiting to see how the situation in the Middle East will be resolved and what the new energy forecast will look like, since global energy drives plastics pricing.
Distinguishing Short-term Volatility from Long-term Structural Shifts
Short-term volatility typically centers around an acute event like the North American hurricanes in September 2005 that roiled production on the US Gulf Coast, the February 2021 winter freeze in the United States, and now this conflict in the Middle East.
Long-term structural shifts tend to be tied to consumer demand patterns, movement in cost relationships between regions that can change the competitive landscape for resin, and or government regulations that impact the demand for plastics. A good example is the assumptions around carbon in Europe in the short- and long-term. The timing and actual implementation of such policies have a huge impact on forecasting.
Building Expertise in Chemical Market Analytics and Industry Forecasting
Math and science certainly help, but curiosity and critical thinking skills are probably the most important attributes I look for in potential new hires. Getting into the industry in one way or another is typically the hardest part of this business. Once in, gaining work experience, preferably doing a few different things, will help one gain more understanding of the industry.
There is a lot to becoming a strong analyst. We are expected to be experts on the economy to understand current and future demand growth trends. We must know oil and gas upstream and downstream, plus be masters of our specific chemical domains, in my case, global polyethylene and polypropylene. Staying on top of geopolitics is a given and makes it easier to understand being part of Dow Jones, where we have a robust geopolitical risk business and renowned newsrooms and analysts through The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Dow Jones Risk Journal, Oxford Analytica, Dragonfly and more.
Additionally, artificial intelligence is coming, and that is a tool we will have to embrace to enhance what we do today.
